A "good enough" mom muses about alpha moms, adoption, computers, the State Of The World, Internet quirkiness, and the Kosmik All
You better, you better, you bet

Over the past few years, the OmegaFamily has watched, jaw agape, as the housing prices in Hippy Dippy Enclave in the Woods have risen, and risen, and risen yet again.

Our house cost us the grand sum of $125,000 in 1998--an amount that made OmegaDad's family in Oklahoma gasp and exclaim that it had better be a bloody mansion!  For that price, we got 1275 square feet (or is it 1242?) and a neighborhood with...um...character, like the mobile-in-a-blanket a street over that is painted vivid purple.  Or the house down the street from that, another aging mobile home, which is festooned with various pieces of welding art.  Or the (formerly) haunted house across the street which is now occupied by The Shouters, who have innumerable dogs crammed into a 600-sq.-ft. house, along with the 10-year-old daughter, the late-teens daughter who is always dating someone with a macho car, and the early-20s son who is a Marine.

No homeowners association here, thank heavens.  And if there was one, as we have joked, the requirements would be owning at least one Large Dawg (check), a canoe on the porch (check--well, it's in the garage, so it doesn't quite count), and an aging VW bus on concrete blocks in the driveway (no check).  (There is a rumor that one of the houses in HDEW has a septic tank which is, in reality, merely an old VW bus that was sunk into the ground, pipes piped in, and dirt piled on top.  The septic pumping system dude who pumped our tank this summer assured me that this was true, and he had actually pumped out the bus once.)

At the time, the price we paid was about $20,000 below the median.  Our lenders claimed we could afford much more, but to our sensibilities, this was the max we could afford.  We looked for three months, traveling up the hill to Small Mountain University Town on the weekends, scouring the ads, checking Realtor.com.

Nowadays, if one were to go by the asking prices that I have been tracking in a spreadsheet since May, we would be able to sell the house at $300,000.

Yeah, right.

Anyone with an iota of sense would look at these skyrocketing values--150% appreciation in eight years?!--and say the dread words, "housing bubble".

My latest blog reading delight has been housing bubble blogs.  As is my wont, I jumped onto the bandwagon late in the game, discovering them in June or July.  I read them and started garnering facts and figures galore.  Housing sales have currently stalled.  It looks like the peak was about a year ago.  Nationwide median housing sales prices dropped by 9% year-over-year this fall, for the first time in 35 years that the National Realtors Association has been tracking them.

The amount of insane loans that have been being taken out recently is appalling.  125% mortgages...option ARMs with interest-only payments...toxic home equity loans.  I've seen some charts'n'graphs displaying the skyrocketing house prices, displaying the skyrocketing amount of debt the average American has taken out in the past few years, displaying some interesting synchronicities between median housing price changes and (shifted forward 12 months) the Dow Jones...

Since the Dems swept the recent elections, a bunch of bloggers have started wondering when the Republicans would blame the Dems for the bursting of the bubble blog.

Fear not:  We already have someone doing it

Anyway, the bottom line:  don't expect your house to be worth what you currently think it's worth if you try to sell it.

Technorati: , , ,

posted by Kate @ 11/16/2006 09:27:00 PM  
7 Comments:
  • At 11/17/2006 07:43:00 AM, Blogger Miss Cellania said…

    On the other hand, people who sell a house have to buy another, usually. So its six of one and a half dozen of the other. Meanwhile, even with a stalled market, your house would be worth quite a bit more than you paid fo rit years ago.

    Trying to see the glass half-full, ya know...

     
  • At 11/18/2006 05:29:00 PM, Blogger Granny J said…

    Here's a look at the RE madness in NYC

     
  • At 11/19/2006 09:00:00 AM, Blogger Kate said…

    Miss C--Oh, yeah, the house is still worth a heckuva lot more than it was when we bought it, and it would have to be a deadly crash for the price to drop that low again.

    Mamasan--Hah! I can totally sympathize with those folks, what with having only two closets in the house!

     
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About Me: Middle-aged mom of a 4-year-old adopted from China. Love science, debate, good SF and fantasy, hiking, music of almost every style. Lousy housekeeper. "Good enough" mom.
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